Friday, September 4, 2009

Bold Predictions for 2009

While I know the season technically started last night with the two crapfests on ESPN and assorted small-college ball (I'm talking about you, Iowa State), the real fun begins tomorrow. We sit on the precipice of a season that will take the college game to even greater heights, with countless dramas and storylines that will unfold over the course of the next four and a half months. Two Heisman trophy winners coming back, and for the first time in history all three finalists from the previous year's balloting will again vie for the trophy.

Here are the stories I'll be paying close attention to in the following months:

-The hope for resurgence among three of college football's heavyweights. In Tallahassee, the vibe coming out of Florida State is that they finally have a QB and offensive line that will put them back to where they belong. In South Bend, Charlie Weis is officially out of excuses at Notre Dame with a cupboard stocked with playmakers at the skill positions. And in Lincoln, Bo Pelini is looking to make the Huskers into a team that competes for national titles, not Big 12 North ones, with a more confident defense and re-emphasizing of the running game.

-Tim Tebow will attempt to lead one of the more stacked teams in recent memory to it's 3rd national title in 4 years, a feat not accomplished since Nebraska's glory days in the 1990's. Though it should be pointed out that the Husker championship teams were all undefeated, and Florida has yet to have one of those.

In addition to chasing a crystal ball and another Heisman, Tebow will also cure cancer, defeat terrorism with one hand tied behind his back, and end the economic recession. Coinciding with this effort by Tebow, ESPN will launch a new network devoted entirely to covering him in all his glory. In case you haven't noticed by now, I'm sick of hearing about Tim Tebow.....and he hasn't played a game yet this year.

-ESPN will declare the Gators the best college football team of all time in week 5. That went real well the last time they did, when they called USC that in 2005. Oh wait, that team didn't even win the national title that year? Oh....well maybe, just maybe, ESPN should stop with the hype and just report the scores. I get so damn sick of watching these roundtable discussions with analysts shouting over each other when all I want to see is some highlights.

-Colt McCoy will win the Heisman trophy, and it will be well-deserved. In addition to the leftover sentiment from last year, I believe few voters want to give a second Heisman to Tebow. Only Archie Griffin has two, and I don't know if people are ready for another two-time winner. Taking that into account, along with Sam Bradford playing behind a new offensive line, and I think McCoy has not only the weapons at his disposal to win, but also the support of most college football fans.

- The only thing stopping USC from winning another Pac-10 title (and assuring another Big 10 beatdown in the Rose Bowl) is wildfires. Oregon looked woeful against Boise State, and I think Cal will continue to falter when the pressure is on. Here's my question: If you were a USC player, wouldn't you get really sick of having to play all your bowl games 20 minutes away? I mean, obviously you want to win the conference title, but wouldn't it be sad knowing that you have to go to the national title game or you're assured of going to Pasadena again?

- Boise State, with their most difficult game already a W, will run the table and "crash" the BCS, leading to another year of bitching and moaning by WAC officials. Look, I get it. It sucks for the Broncos that the system is stacked against them and they have a shot for a 3rd undefeated season and have no national title to show for it.

That said, if the Broncos just manned up and scheduled Oregon, USC, and Cal for their non-conference games instead of teams like UC Davis, Bowling Green, and Tulsa, maybe they would get the shot they are looking for. If teams from the WAC want the respect given to BCS teams, then they should try to schedule as many teams like that as they can.

Perhaps those teams wouldn't want to face Boise State, but the effort has to be made on Boise State's part, because as long as your playing in the WAC, you have to have a brutal-and I mean brutal- non conference slate to get the voters to put you in the title game. Either that, or call the Pac-10 and see if they'd be interested in adding a 12th team to their league. Which they wouldn't because the Pac 10, much like it's Big 10 counterpart, is so stuck in the past they can't see that making some changes might help them, and college football as a whole, to solve some lingering issues about the game.

-Speaking of Boise State and BCS berths, it doesn't help the WAC teams of the world when Notre Dame can fall ass-backwards into 9 wins and snatch BCS invites away from more deserving teams. I don't understand the media infatuation with them....I mean, when was the last time they won a national title, 1988? And if the whole country hates Notre Dame (which that seems to be the case), why do they keep getting the publicity they do? Because they were a juggernaut during the 40's?

Being a Nebraska fan, believe me, I respect tradition, and ND will always rank as one of the all-time greats. But Nebraska has received almost no attention the past few years while they stumbled through the Callahan era. Meanwhile, Weis and the Golden Domers get brought up nearly every damn telecast. And that's not jealousy, that's just me being sick of hearing about them. Can we just hold off on talking about them until they go into the USC game undefeated? Or are we going to do the standard operating procedure for Notre Dame, which is boost them to #9 in the rankings when they start 3-0?

Oh, and while I'm on the topic of Notre Dame, can someone please do something about Lou Holtz? I mean, I like the guy for the most part because he's an old timer and has a lot of respect for the programs that were dominant back in the day (and yes, I'm talking about Nebraska). That said, since when is it OK to have such blatant homerism on what's supposed to be an objective show? Look Lou, we know you love Notre Dame. You had a great run there, and nobody is saying you can't root for them. But could you please stop slobbering through another pro-ND rant on College Football Live? Because quite frankly, I can't take much more of it.

- The Big 10 will be a three team league this year instead of the usual two. Michigan State, the whole conference is counting on you to bring some shred of respectability to it. Um....good luck with that. Let's just say I have my doubts.

-I thought initially was disappointed that Michigan hired Rich Rod to be their coach, because I feared he would fast-track them back to national relevance, and I didn't want to see that happen, because the weaker the Big 10 is, the easier it is for me to live in Minnesota and deal with these idiotic fans. However, its looking like he's going to need a good season to cool off a fan base even more upset now that he's brought NCAA investigations looking into practice-gate.

So I just realized that my "bold predictions" was more of a rant about different college football topics with only a couple of predictions mixed in.....but really, do you expect anything different? We're only 24 hours away from the real kickoff of college football, you can't expect my attention span to be that good with Christmas only a day away. Good luck to everyone's teams this year, and for the Husker fans, I'll be back tomorrow with a game-by-game season prediction.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Nebraska Defense Looks to Make Leap in Pelini's 2nd Year

A year ago at this time, all of Husker Nation was wondering what Bo Pelini, even with his defensive wizardry and impressive resume, really could do to fix a defense that the previous season had been massacred (and I'm talking Biblical proportions here) on a near-weekly basis. Not only had fundamental things such as tackling and basic gap assignments apparently fallen by the wayside, the thing that bothered Husker fans most was what seemed like a lack of effort by the Nebraska defense, a seemingly lackadaisical attitude that was among the main factors when Tom Osborne ultimately terminated the previous staff.

One year later, we know why we hired Pelini as our head coach. While he may not have turned the Pinkskirts of 2007 into Blackshirts, he salvaged a sinking ship and got it pointed in the right direction. The Huskers improved from 112th in the country to 55th, and while 55th might not be cause for celebration, it was good enough for 2nd in the Big 12, and it certainly was better than crapfest saw the previous season under Kevin Cosgrove.

So what does 2009 hold? Will inexperience hold back the Huskers, or will a year in the system overcome any youth-related shortcomings? Here's a look at each unit of the Husker defense for the upcoming season.

Defensive Line

Much like their offensive counterparts, the defensive line for Nebraska is the strength on this side of the ball. Led by All-Everything DT Ndamukong Suh, this unit will be counted on to put pressure on the backfield by itself a lot of the time, especially considering it's difficult to blitz linebackers or defensive backs in a conference where the average pass is gone in two seconds or less. One exciting thing to watch this season is where Suh positions himself in the pantheon of Husker greats.

How high can he climb? A recent article in the Lincoln Journal-Star put him as the 20th-best defender in Husker history. Obviously he has a long way to go to get into Grant Wistrom territory, but what if he puts up another monster season with a few more sacks? What if by dominating, he enables the rest of the defense to rise to new heights on his back? Stats are not the only thing that measures greatness. Greatness is making the people around you better.

In addition to Suh, the Huskers have proven players in defensive ends Pierre Allen and Barry Tuner. Allen, who last year filled in for Turner after the latter's season-ending knee injury, surprised many with his stellar play. According to defensive coordinator Carl Pelini, he could be the Huskers next "superstar", though Allen was quick to downplay the quote. Still, having Suh on the interior, along with a rejuvenated Turner on the other side, should offer Allen plenty of opportunities to make good on Pelini's prediction.

The guy who is the most unknown player among the starting front four is Jared Crick, a sophomore defensive tackle. While he may be an unknown commodity at this point, Bo Pelini singled him out in his press conference Tuesday as a player who has had a great camp and could make a lot of plays with opposing offensive lines having to focus on Suh. Behind both Crick and Suh is redshirt freshmen Baker Steinkuhler, the former high school All-American who along with Terrence Moore (no slouch himself) will be counted on to give both starters a breather.

Along with Steinkuhler, another redshirt freshmen to keep an eye on this season is Cameron Meredith, who turned heads this spring and will be looked to spell both Turner and Allen on occasion. The only true freshmen that has really made much noise at all in fall camp is Jason Ankrah, the defensive end out of Maryland. Right now it hasn't been determined if he'll redshirt or not, but they could wait the first few games and see how everyone's health is before making it official.

The key to a great defensive line is having quality depth, as any player, no matter how well-conditioned, is going to get tired up front if the defense is out there for an extended series. Carl Pelini didn't switch guys out much last year, but I expect him to be less hesitant to throw some younger players in this year now that everyone knows the system, and it should be fun to watch what should be a extremely good (and potentially dominant) unit.

Linebackers

This is what makes writing a season preview for the Huskers difficult: we are still sans a depth chart. That said, a few things have began to hash out the past week, and apparently Nebraska could be trotting out a cabbage patch kid assortment at linebacker. Two of the projected starters, Will Compton at the MIKE and Sean Fisher at the BUCK, are redshirt freshmen. Obviously we have no way of knowing if they both will indeed be starting Saturday, given the coaching staff's insistence on making competition go up through Thursday, but the staff, and the young duo's older teammates, have been effusive in their praise of Compton and Fisher.

Compton, a 6'2" 230-pound wrecking ball, was highly recruited out of high school in Missouri, and there were several times last year where he nearly had his redshirt yanked to help a depleted linebacking corps. Luckily for Husker fans everywhere, they were able to resist the temptation and continue Compton's development. According to Carl Pelini, Compton's communication and mastery of the defense are two of the biggest reasons for his rise to #1 on the depth chart. Backing him up will most likely be Phillip Dillard, who in his senior year is looking at his last chance to live up to the spotty potential he has shown the past few years here. Expect senior Colton Koehler, who saw significant time last year, to also see his share of playing time at the MIKE position this year.

Fisher, the 6'6" genetic freak, is someone I'm going to be watching with great interest this season. Anytime you get someone with that frame and speed on the field, it makes life hell for opposing quarterbacks, because it shuts down some throwing lanes and forces the QB to float his passes just a little bit more than he'd like to, which hopefully will lead to more interceptions. In addition to his physical skills, word out of camp is that he also is a student of the game and is becoming, according to fellow linebacker Blake Lawrence, one of the leaders of the defense, which is surprising for a second year player. In addition to being the #1 BUCK linebacker, Fisher is also getting the lion's share of the reps as the #1 linebacker in both the nickel and dime packages as well, so this is a kid who will be on the field a lot this fall. Said linebackers coach Mike Eckler halfway through camp: "His game, it's just elevating by the day."

Lawrence and former walk-on Mathew May are both competing pretty hard for the remaining starting position, though it will be interesting to see how many linebackers are on the field for most of our defensive sets, given the amount of spread looks the Huskers will get in the Big 12. May has more athleticism than Lawrence, but reportedly is still trying to soak up the playbook. Of course, Lawrence also has had multiple concussions, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of rotation Eckler will use to utilize all the players he has at his disposal.

In addition to the two deep, there are also a couple of freshmen to keep an eye on this fall. Alonzo Whaley, a redshirt freshmen, made a lot of noise last year on the scout team, and his speed should be an asset, particularly on special teams if nothing else. In addtion to Whaley, true freshmen Eric Martin and Chris Williams also could potentially see playing time this fall. Martin by all accounts has had a head-turning camp, including the now-infamous hit that Eckler said was one of the best he's seen during his time at Nebraska. Williams, one of the higher-rated linebacker recruits in the country, might not make it on the field till later in the season, as he's working back from a knee injury he suffered last season. While he's reportedly making good strides, the staff is being especially cautious with him, especially after Kody Spano's knee injury.

Secondary

While the name may suggest otherwise, this unit is of primary concern if Nebraska is going to make another big leap in the defensive rankings this year. Last season, while still trying to learn the ins and outs of Pelini's defense, the secondary had several embarrassing mental lapses that led to easy scores for opponents. In fact, I blame this group for the meteoric rise in my blood pressure last year, Larry Asante in particular.

To be honest, hearing the chatter out of camp that Asante is one of the best performers is making me both optimistic and nervous. Optimistic because maybe now I won't see slot receivers racing past him after he bites on the tight end running routes underneath, and nervous because what if he hasn't really improved and it just means that everyone else is playing like garbage? Obviously, I'm joking here. While I'm always hesitant to believe everything I read coming out of practices, it seems that Asante, and the secondary as a whole, have finally wrapped their heads around the defensive scheme and are beginning to simply react instead of hesitating to read everything before doing their job.

With the safety spots, there seems to be a four-headed monster with Asante, Ricky Thenarse, Eric Hagg, and Matt O'Hanlon all looking at being interchangeable parts who will see considerable time. While I expect Asante to be a starter, the other spot is still seemingly for grabs. In camp defensive backs coach Marvin Sanders identified Hagg as his best "lockdown" player, so you would think he would get the nod, but the other spot has usually been a two-player fight between O'Hanlon and Thenarse.

Thenarse, a senior, has been teasing Husker fans with potential for three years now with YouTube-worthy special teams hits, but he has run out of time at Nebraska. While his inconsistency can be maddening, you can't help but root for a kid who lost not one but two brothers to gang violence last year in addition to dealing with nagging shoulder problems. Finally 100% healthy and focused on football, it will be interesting to see if Ricky can be the player so many have long hoped he would become. Sanders has indicated that Thenarse has made significant strides during camp, but also was quick to point out that he's excited about the depth at the position and will "look at ways to get them all on the field."

In addition to the main four safeties, there are a couple of younger guys to keep an eye on. The most promising thus far is redshirt freshmen P.J. Smith, who will definitely see his share of playing time this year after dominating on the scout team last season. Courtney Osborne is another who might see some time, though not as much as Smith. I expect both these players to get a chance to make a mark on special teams if nothing else. In my opinion, if you're the coaching staff you're going to want to get these guys some looks in game situations though, especially when you consider that Thenarse, Asante, and O'Hanlon are all seniors.

As far as the cornerbacks go, Sanders has indicated that juniors Prince Amukamara, Dejon Gomes, and Anthony West, along with sophomore Alfonzo Dennard will all see significant playing time. Though Amukamara has reportedly been making a few mental mistakes, he is still considered by many to be the best player at the position in terms of physical tools. If he can curb the errors, he'll be a starter for sure.

In addition to the main four, Anthonly Blue, who was a freshmen All-Big 12 in 2007, is looking to bounce back after redshirting last season with a knee injury. An injury like that is always unfortunate, but to have it happen when there's a regime change makes it twice as tough on the player, as he misses a lot of reps that would help acclimate him with the defense. Though I haven't heard much about him during camp, he could be a guy who halfway through the year is getting more and more playing time as he soaks up the scheme. The young guy to watch at this position is Andrew Green, a true freshmen who was a three-star recruit out of San Antonio. According to Carl Pelini, he's been doing a lot to turn heads thus far in camp, and could see playing time eventually.

Overview

I wish I could sit here and tell you that the defense is going to take a quantum leap this year. To improve from 112th to 55th last year was quite a feat, and even then we still had embarrassing performances against Oklahoma and Missouri. The thing about total defense rankings, however, is that they don't tell the whole story. The rankings are based off of the total yards given up per game, which can be a bad indicator when you're playing in the Big 12 and basically every team is putting up 400 yards a game through the air.

Pelini's defenses are predicated on everyone doing their 1/11th, and all it takes is one guy being out of position to make everyone else look like a horse's ass (as we saw all too frequently last year). Film study and repetition within a scheme has a way of getting rid of that split-second hesitation that is the difference between making an interception and giving up a touchdown, and I really think we'll see more of the former than the latter this year.

Am I predicting a juggernaut? No, not by any means. We still have a pretty young team, and there will still be the occasional mental breakdown. But I do believe that this staff, and these players, have an air of confidence not seen in Lincoln in years. While some may not see confidence as the greatest indicator of future greatness, I think that we are beginning to see the rebirth of the Blackshirt mentality, one where everyone is keeping each other accountable within the system, and nothing but perfection is tolerated. And that, my friends, will lead to the leap we are all hoping for.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Hot Routes, Big Red Style

Can you believe we're only 9 days away from kickoff? That long wait through miserable basketball and baseball games, the tease that was spring football, it's all in the rear view mirror as we hurtle toward that first sweet fall Saturday and the feeling that all is once again right in the world.

Considering I've neglected to post much on Nebraska-related developments the past couple of days, I'm going to spend the bulk of today's Hot Routes focusing on the Big Red, then moving on to whatever conference and national matters I find noteworthy (or worthy of making fun of).

-The biggest news, at least in terms of buzz, is the announcement that Cody Green has taken the lead in the race to be the #2 quarterback. Green, the stud freshmen who some thought might redshirt this year behind Kody Spano before the latter's injury, has apparently grasped the intricate Nebraska offense quite well, and has gained the confidence of his coaches and teammates through nearly three weeks of fall camp.

The real concern here is that Watson has already said that he won't change his play calling to protect Zac Lee from injury, which means that we are one play away from having a true freshmen manning the most important position on the field. That said, Green is obviously no ordinary freshmen, and the days of worrying about an 18 year old kid not being able to do the job are for the most part gone.

With the advancements in year-round football camps and clinics, training, and the increase in kids getting on campus one semester early for spring ball, having a freshmen under center isn't nearly as scary as it used to be. Just look at Terrelle Pryor or Robert Griffin last year, I think both of those teams probably had few complaints about the quality of their quarterback play. The other thing that boosts my confidence about Green's rise on the depth chart is that Watson has said he won't dumb down the playbook for him, he's going to coach him till they feel he'll be ready to play with no drop-off from Zac, and it seems like the staff is confident he'll get to that level pretty quickly.

-After the dismissal of Quentin Castille, many bemoaned the fact that the Huskers now lacked a short-yardage battering ram for the goal line situations. I too, was a little concerned about it, since it's tough to find guys who are 235 pounds and can run like Quentin did. After reading this article by Jon Nyatawa over on the Omaha World Herald site, my concerns are put to rest, at least a little bit. Quoting running backs coach Tim Beck:

“It's still about reading holes and getting through there,” Beck said. “It does help sometimes if you're a bigger guy and somebody's in the way .... but you have these guys who can make big plays because they make people miss. Sometimes that 2-yard gain for the first down on third and 1 becomes a 50-yard touchdown.”

Here's my opinion on the usage of big backs like Castille: are they the be-all end-all for short yardage situations? Of course not. One of the best short yardage backs in history of the game was Marcus Allen, whose wiry 6'2", 210 pound build more resembles that of Lester Ward than Quentin Castille. Another instance of battering-ram tailbacks not assuring a first down is from the epic USC-Texas national championship game at the end of the 2005 season. Needing one yard to move the chains and keep Vince Young off the field, LenDale "Kripsy Kreme" White couldn't get it.

That said, my argument in favor of guys like Q is that the deeper you go into a game, the more it wears out the linebackers and secondary having to tackle a guy like that. Have you ever tried to stop someone like that when they have a head of steam? I have, and it felt like someone hit my shoulder with a sledgehammer. Extrapolate that over four quarters, and then you get an idea of what I mean. All of this of course is a moot point, because Quentin is gone, and now the task falls to Roy and Nebraska's stable of speedsters. As Beck pointed out, results are results, it doesn't matter how NU gets them as long as it's effective.

- To no surprise, Tom Osborne isn't really wild about Bud Light's "Fan Cans". Given T.O.'s opinion on underage alcohol abuse on college campuses, this was a given. All I really want to know is, what is the one place in Nebraska that DID get some of the cans? Because I'd like to call them and buy a case to be shipped up here. They have fan cans up here for the Vikings, but I fear that drinking beer out of a purple and yellow can may make me question my sexuality, whereas red and white would probably shoot my consumption to an entire new level on fall Saturdays. I mean, I'm going to be wearing a red shirt and a red hat......to have red and white Bud Light cans on top of it? That might put too much strain on an already-overburdened liver.

Still, my opinion aside, Osborne's request falls in line with nearly every athletic director and college president in the country, and I'm not going to argue with the logic in their arguments. Will this stop underage consumption? Well, no. It won't even slow it down. But if you're in their shoes, you have to make that move and speak out against it.

-While part of me feels for Latravis Washington being disappointed about getting passed by Cody Green, can he really be that surprised? Washington hadn't played quarterback since high school, whereas Green was coming in right after a ballyhooed career in Texas, both of them beginning their NU quarterback career at the same time. Furthermore, isn't competition what makes great programs great?

The most repeated phrase of camp thus far is that nobody- save Zac Lee's- job is safe, that every guy has to be sharp and busting his ass every day or he runs the risk of being passed by. While disappointment is understandable, the good thing is he seems to have the right reaction:

"I'm kind of disappointed in myself I didn't come out as the No. 2, but I'm going to just keep working and keep grinding, just keep on pushing forward.....It's whatever the coaches want. I'm a team player."

- Is anyone loving Bo's mentality and Pelini-isms through fall camp? After a sub-par practice, he comes out and says that "We're not a very good team right now." Which is exactly what needs to be said if the secondary is giving up deep balls, which is reportedly one of the big factors for Bo's surly attitude after practice Wednesday. After watching opposing wideouts fly by our defensive backs over and over again last year because of mental mistakes like biting on underneath routes, it's good to see that everyone is so focused on accountability. I've been one of Larry Asante's biggest critics, but to hear him say "We need to step it up" makes me excited to see what kinds of improvements we'll see from the pass defense.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Q is Out, Rex is In, and Thunder Goes to Prison

Give Bo Pelini credit: He won't bend his rules for talented players. That was the message made more emphatically than ever with the dismissal of Quentin Castille, a talented if somewhat oft-troubled running back who was going to be option 1b at the tailback position this year behind Roy Helu.

Castille, who showed his true potential in spectacular fashion in last year's Gator Bowl victory over Clemson, sat out his last three practices in street clothes before Pelini made it official on Saturday.

When I found out, I was camping with some friends, but the announcement put a cloud of disappointment over the rest of the day for my brother and I. We, like many Husker fans, were excited to see what Castille could do this year in a season where the running game was seemingly going to become the featured part of the offense.

Reactions from most of the fans, and the media community, have been pretty supportive of Pelini's decision. In an era when many teams would simply handle a non-legal issue internally, Pelini made a stand and showed that every player, no matter how talented, must abide by his rules, or he'll be shown the door.

Said Pelini on Jim Rome's radio show yesterday:

“When you’re setting up a program and you’re forming a culture, in my world it’s pretty black and white. There’s not a lot of gray. You’re going do what’s asked of you. There’s going to be repercussions when you screw up. "

"Unfortunately for ‘Q,’ he made some mistakes and he made one too many…one thing our kids understand here is it’s not about any one person, it’s about the “N” on the side of your helmet…our players understand why the decision was made.”

When I talked to my dad (the man most responsible for my Husker brainwashing), he seemed pretty disappointed with the move.

The way he saw it, if Johnny Rogers was allowed to stay on the team after robbing a gas station back in '72, or Lawrence Phillips after that whole situation in '95, then why should Quentin be booted? While I understand that argument, I think he fails to see the difference between Osborne and Pelini.

Osborne believed that by keeping them in the program, he could continue to help them change their ways and give them a chance to rehabilitate themselves, whereas if they were let go, they could continue a downward spiral. Osborne, in his 1996 book On Solid Ground:

"Permanently dismissing Lawrence from the football team wouldn't have helped any of my family members or anyone else's family. If anything, it might have made things worse. By not getting the needed treatment, something similar may have happened in the future."

"At least if he were on the team, I could make sure he would get the help he needed...I hope people understand that we tried to do what was best for Lawrence as a human being and not simply to win football games."

Pelini, on the other hand, has his own opinions on player discipline. Since he's taken over the program, over a dozen players have left the program, and while not all of them are for player discipline, you have to wonder how many of them knew they would not be able to tolerate the elevated expectations that came with Pelini's hiring.

At first, I was torn on the decision. I have personal experience with this issue, as I was booted from my football team in college for drinking (it was a Baptist school that didn't allow drinking, or for that matter, pretty much anything else). Now, I didn't disagree with my dismissal. I broke the rules, and I should suffer the consequence.

However, half the starters on the defense were the guys I was out drinking with, and they were allowed to stay on the team. I was a second-stringer, and by no means a game breaker. THAT I had a problem with.

With Pelini, you don't see that. It doesn't matter how integral a player is to the team's success, if he doesn't toe the line, he'll be gone, and kudos to Pelini for sticking to his guns.

That said, what now with the running back position? We all know that Rex Burkhead, the schoolboy legend from Texas, has been elevated to No. 2. While I am as excited as anyone to see what the kid can do, he is by no means a proven commodity like Castille was. In additon to that, at 200 pounds he can hardly be expected to be the goal line battering ram that Castille was.

Despite my reservations though, having watched all his high school highlight videos, I am interested in seeing if he can make an instant inpact, particularly in the passing game, as it seems he's a pretty adept receiver.

Another question is, if Burkhead is the backup at running back, then who's the No. 3? Lester Ward has been getting some good reviews out of camp, but he has yet to have a collegiate carry.

What about Marcus Mendoza, who was moved back to the position after practicing with the receivers all fall? It will be interesting to see what Watson and RB coach Tim Beck do with so many unproven players at their disposal.


Thunder Collins Convicted

I'm not going to get into the dirty details of Thunder's conviction. It's yet another sad chapter in an ongoing downward spiral, and it's one I don't particularly like to talk about.

Collins was a guy who never lived up to the hype that he arrived with after being a JUCO All-American. In his best season for the Huskers, he had 647 yards rushing and 189 yards receiving, and he left the team halfway through the 2002 schedule.

Here's what is really chapping my ass about this whole situation though: Why on earth is this getting major play on sports news sites and TV? I could understand if it was a game-breaker who contributed some great seasons and made it to the NFL, but this is a guy who was a blip on the radar for a couple of years and then disappeared.

Somehow, this is making it in the "top stories" sections on SI.com and ESPN. My personal belief is that ever since Lawrence Phillips, any time the national media can point out another troubled former Nebraska player, they'll do it.

Maybe it's because we're in a part of the year that is lacking sports news (preseason football, all they have to talk about else is baseball), but either way, it still pisses me off that this gives opponents and critics another reason to talk bad about the program.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Big 12 South Preview (Part I)


Due to time constraints today, I'm only going to publish the first half of my Big XII South preview. I know, the fans of Tech, Baylor, and Texas A&M are devastated, but we'll get to the bottom half of the division later this week, most likely after a Hot Routes and then some commentary on the Castille dismissal/Burkhead ascendancy for the Big Red. This should have been posted sooner, but alas, I was out of town.

The teams below are listed in in the order I believe they'll finish in the division race.

TEXAS LONGHORNS

Is it just me, or is Colt McCoy the Big XII's Van Wilder? He's one of those guys who has been in the spotlight his whole college career, and, as a result, it seems like he's been in school for the better part of a decade.

It's unfortunate for the rest of the Big 12, because during that tenure he's been pretty damn good. Holding 42 school records and a 32-7 career mark in the win/loss column will make you a near-deity at a school like UT, but to get on Vince Young's level, McCoy will have to take the Longhorns to where the pollsters didn't allow them to go last year, and that's to a national title.

Fortunately for McCoy, he'll have plenty of help on the offensive side of the ball, where eight starters return from an offense that put up 42 points and 475 yards per game last year. What sets UT apart from Oklahoma this year is that, whereas the Sooners have to rebuild their offensive line, Texas brings back four of their five starters from last year, among them All-Big 12 tackle Adam Ulatoski and center Chris Hall. The 'Horns hope that this experience in the trenches will lead to a running game with a feature back who's last name isn't McCoy, which was the case last year.

Look for the ball-toting duties to be shared among three backs, as was the case last year. This year's edition will feature Vondrell McGee (likely starter), Fozzy Whittaker (change-of-pace-guy), and Cody Johnson (short yardage). Whether or not that will lead to a better rushing game is anyone's guess. The real question here is, with it's fertile recruiting ground, how on God's green earth does UT not have a beast in the backfield?

The receiving corps, while losing Quan Crosby, still has Jordan Shipley, though it doesn't help that the Longhorns have lost four (that's right, four) tight ends to season-ending injuries thus far this year. Shipley is a legitimate Belitnekoff award candidate, and it's well deserved, as he's a beast.

UT's defense returns six starters, the most prominent being LB/DE Sergio Kindle, who is expected to get a lot of snaps at defensive end to shore up a unit still dealing with the loss of three starters, including Nagurski/Lombardi award winner Brian Orakpo. If the defensive line loses anybody to injury, there will be a significant depth issue there, and finding able bodies to prevent that is high on defensive coordinator (and head-coach-in-waiting) Will Muschamp. The good news is that the unit was bolstered by another boffo recruiting class, including Alex Okafor, the No. 1 ranked strongside defensive end, according to Rivals.com.

The rest of the defense wasn't hit as hard in terms of graduations and NFL decisions, and will return some able-bodied playmakers in Roddrick Muckelroy and a pair of stud safeties in Blake Gideon and Earl Thomas, who both excelled as freshmen last year.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS

For a team that has won three consecutive Big XII championships and played in five national title games in the past 11 seasons, the Sooners still have a problem with closing out with a victory. If you look back, the last time that OU won their final game of the year was back in 2005, when they beat Oregon in the Holiday Bowl, and as a result, there has been a little bit of OU backlash in recent years, especially last year after Texas was denied a chance to compete for the national title despite having beaten the Sooners in the Red River Shootout.

Say what you want about Oklahoma, but their consistency this decade is nothing short of amazing in this era of parity in college football. Only once in the 2000s have the Sooners finished with fewer than 11 wins. The question is, when will they get over the hump again and raise the crystal ball?

Last year's Sooner offense was the most prolific (at least in terms of scoring) in college football history, scoring 50 or more points in seven of their games and failing to break 40 only three times. That said, the Sooners face a challenge in restocking an offensive line that lost four starters, in addition to Sam Bradford's go-to receiver, Juaguin Iglesias. Luckily for Bradford, he still has plenty of playmakers to choose from, including a pair of 1,000 yard backs in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown and tight end Jermaine Gresham, who may be the nation's best at that position.

Bradford faces stiff competition from McCoy and Jesus, er, Tim Tebow for the Heisman Trophy, but as we've seen, OU usually finds a way to simply reload with former five star recruits when they lose any weapons. As long as the line keeps Bradford upright, the offense will keep on rolling.

The defense, as is usually the case in the Bob Stoops era, will be a highly-regarded unit. Anchored by all-everything tackle Gerald McCoy, as well as defensive end Auston English and linebacker Travis Lewis, the Sooners are expecting great things from a squad that expects to return it's front seven from last season intact. According to Stoops's media day interviews, he thinks that this unit has a chance to be one of the better ones that the Sooners have had during his time at OU.

OKLAHOMA STATE

While everyone else may be predicting that OSU is this year's Texas Tech, I'm still not sold on them making that kind of a jump. The offense, though overshadowed by its peers in the South last year, is as good as any in the country. Not only is the attack extremely potent, it's also extremely balanced, as it rushed for 3,191 yards and passed for 3,149 yards last season.

The triggerman for the juggernaut is multi-threat QB Zac Robinson, who has no shortage of weapons at his disposal on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys return the Big XII's leading receiver and rusher, with All-American Dez Bryant doing the catching (1,480 yards, 17 YPC) and Kendall Hunter doing the running (1,555 yards, 16 TD's).

The only real losses for the offense were All-Conference center David Washington and first-round NFL draft choice Brandon Pettigrew, a tight end who last year had 42 catches for 472 yards

With all that firepower returning, you may wonder why I'm not sold on the Cowboys living up to their lofty pre-season rankings (No. 9, AP). For any knowledgeable college football fan, you already know the answer: their defense is, well...bad. Last year, the Cowboys lost four games, and in those games the opposing team averaged 47 points.

The reason for so much optimism by the Okie State faithful is that the Cowboys brought in Bill Young as defensive coordinator. Young, an OSU alum, is highly regarded in coaching circles, coming off his experience with Miami last year and Kansas the previous year, as a man known for turning around inept devensive units.

The question is, can one guy really flip the switch for a team that allowed over 400 yards of offense a game last year, lost three starters from a secondary that struggled mightily, and ranked last in the league in sacks? The Cowboys' aspirations of a Big 12 breakthrough hinge on it.

In addition to not being sold on their defense, I still don't think that the Cowboys can get through a brutal schedule that includes Georgia in the non-conference slate and then sends them on the road to face OU, Baylor, and Texas A&M. I think that OSU might be one of those teams that sprints out of the gate and then falls back to earth with another four or five-loss season.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Hot Routes

I was contemplating posting my Big 12 South preview today, but I didn't feel that I had put quite enough into it yet, and considering I my attention span is shorter than the average Oakland Raiders head coaching career, I thought today would be a good day to do a Hot Routes and look around not only some news from the Big 12 but also some stuff that is either entertaining or noteworthy from around the country.

-This Wednesday practice recap got me extremely fired up about Niles Paul. It's crazy (and depressing) how fast time flies, as he's already a junior and we're still waiting for him to break out. If you read this blurb, however, it seems that the explosion is coming. Up until this point, the former high school All-American has been a special-teamer and the 4th receiver. However, his off-field issue this spring has obviously refocused him, and he seems determined to live up to they hype this year. I'm going to do a feature on the receiving corps at some point, but let me say this: Niles Paul has me giddy with anticipation about seeing some deep balls this fall in Memorial Stadium. To quote Shawn Watson from the article:

“Niles Paul is the guy, no doubt.”

What does Paul bring to the table?

“Plays. Big plays,” Watson said. “Respect is earned. You earn it by performance. I think everybody here, everybody on this team — offense, defense, coaches, managers, everybody who sees practice — goes, ‘Wow, he’s done a nice job.’”

- Came across this Pat Forde article over on ESPN via the guys over at Double Extra Point, and it lists his 40 worst college football villains from the past and present. As DXP points out, Matt Davidson is at #5 on the list because of his season-altering, national title-saving catch off of Shevin Wiggins' foot. He goes on to bitch and moan about how the officials should have called the play illegal because of the kick. Perhaps he's right, as technically, that was indeed illegal according to the rule book.

Then again, if we're going to nitpick, the media should have voted Nebraska #1 after they trounced (Peyton Manning-led) #3 Tennessee 42-17, while Michigan scraped by (Ryan Leaf-led) #8 Washington State 21-16, with the game coming down to the final play. So you'll have to forgive me if I think the Miracle at Mizzou simply enabled the better team to continue it's march to the national championship. Pat Forde, as pointed out by DXP, is a Missouri graduate. Shocking.

Other notables (pertaining to the Huskers) on the list:

#16 Bernie Kosar, Miami QB
Supposedly hated by the Huskers for his Orange Bowl derailment of the '83 juggernaut that both lost the Big Red the National Title and established the fact that Tom Osborne has testicular fortitude on par with the Gods.

#33 Barry Switzer
We all know why most consider this guy a villain. Husker hatred for him, while still present, has subsided over the years due to his praise of the rivalry and Tom Osborne, who he for the most part owned during their time at OU and Nebraska, respectively.


- I thought this article on the ACC by Mark Schlabach was interesting for a couple of reasons. The ACC is often regarded, as Schlabach points out, as perhaps the 4th or even 5th-best BCS conference in the country. The SEC and Big 12 are always at the top of that list, followed by the Pac-10, Big 10, with the vomit-inducing Big East bringing up the rear. Schlabach points out that the ACC has produced more 1st round NFL draft picks than any other conference the past four years, as well as the fact that it sent 10 teams to bowl games last year, an NCAA record.

While I don't refute that those are impressive stats, my question is, at what point does a conference's depth take away from it's ability to put teams in national championship games? Sure, they sent 10 teams to a bowl game. However, if you look at the standings, you see that only one team (Virginia Tech) finished with a double-digit win total (10), and that was helped by the Huskers giving them 30 yards on their game-winning drive with personal foul penalties.

After Va Tech, you have a bunch of teams with anywhere from 6-9 wins, and while that may get you into a bowl game, doesn't mean your conference is at the table with the Big 12 and SEC. Furthermore, how hard is it to make a bowl game? The field gets more diluted every year, and what's sad is that they keep trying to add more games. In my opinion, a .500 record should not be rewarded with a trip anywhere, even if the game in Boise, Idaho. If you only did your job right 50% of the time, would you get a bonus? I doubt it, and I don't think these schools, in this economic climate, should be paying to send their players and band anywhere either.

The other side of this argument is, would you rather have top-to-bottom depth, with no national title contenders, or would you rather be the Big 10 and be essentially a two-team conference? Both sides have advantages and disadvantages. The good thing for the Big 10 is, all it takes is to run the table in your conference (which reeks of Garbagio Armani), and you're assured a spot in the national title conversation. The downside of that is that you then get embarrassed in those BCS games on an annual basis. Well what about the Big 12, you say? They're as top heavy as the Big 10, right? No, they're not. Sure, we have OU and Texas. In addition to them though, we have top-10 Okie State this year, followed by respectable teams such as Nebraska, Kansas, Mizzou, and Texas Tech. Heck, even Baylor is becoming decent, and it's just a matter of time before Texas A&M comes back to the pack. So the Big 12 is the best of both worlds. That's right, I went through all those arguments just to tout Big 12 supremacy.

- Speaking of the Big 2, er, Big 10, Stewart Mandel's latest over on SI discusses the lack of parity in the conference and three teams that could be "sleepers": Iowa, Michigan State, and Illinois. While I'll be honest and admit that he makes some valid points about Iowa, I refuse to jump on either the Spartans or the Illini's bandwagons. Sure, MSU finished 6-2 in the league last year, but as Mandel points out, the two losses were one-sided woodshed beatings at the hands of the only two good teams in the conference. So you're telling me because they whooped the junior varsity, that this year they will break out?

I have my doubts. What makes the Big 10 the Big 10 is that there will always be the Indianas and Minnesotas to beat up on, and until the teams like the three Mandel mentioned bring back some kind of middle class to the league, it will continue to be an annual punchline. My favorite sentence of the article: "Of late, though, the league has been lacking in depth, as its putrid 6-16 bowl record over the past three seasons shows." Pointing that out never gets old.

I had to put this in, and no, I don't care that it rips off the "Rudy" song:

Monday, August 17, 2009

Big 12 North Preview

Like taxes and death, it feels like Big 12 North bashing is one of the certainties in life. It's hard to think of more oft-maligned group of teams, mainly because even when the division isn't that bad, the South is so good that it makes the North look like terrible in comparison. The thing is, it really is warranted, particularly if you look at the conference in this decade. Sure, there was Colorado's defeat of Texas in 2001 and K-State's upset of OU in 2003, but those aren't the games the nation remembers. They think of the fact that the South has won the Big XII title game 5 years in a row, and by a combined score of 233-51 at that (thanks in large part to Colorado's 42-3 and 70-3 losses in 2004 and 2005).

When you put up stinkbombs of Hindenburg-ian proportions, people are going to be skeptical any time you claim that the North is rebounding. The thing is, I really do think that the next two seasons will go a long way in rehabilitating the division's image. Kansas and Mizzou have put together a couple of good years now, and Nebraska's continued improvement may finally balance out the conference to a certain extent. Today I'm going to look at the other five Big 12 North teams and make my predictions for their respective 2009 campaigns.

KANSAS JAYHAWKS
What sets the Jayhawks apart from the other main contenders for the North crown (Nebraska, Mizzou) is that they have an established and proven trigger man coming back in Todd Reesing, who by the end of his career (barring injury), will own every passing record that KU has. 20-6 as a starter, including two bowl victories (albeit one of them was over Minnesota, so nothing special there), Reesing will have a bevy of weapons to pick from this year.

He returns one of the best receivers in the country in Dezmon Briscoe, who put up a jaw-dropping season last year when he hauled in 92 catches for just over 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. In addition to Briscoe, Kerry Meier, the former backup QB who turned into a more-than-serviceable receiver, is back and now can focus solely on honing his ball-catching skills. To top it off, Jonathan Wilson (43 catches) and Jake Sharp (860 yards rushing/12 TD's) return as well. So barring Briscoe getting suspended or Reesing getting injured, this offense has the potential to be pretty powerful.

The KU defense, like much of the Big 12, is adapting to deal with the proliferation of the spread offense. Formerly a predominately 4-3 defense, most of the time you'll only see two linebackers on the field with an additional safety subbed in to deal with all the receivers. The secondary and defensive line returns a great deal of depth, led by safety Darrell Stuckey in the back and Caleb Blakesley at defensive tackle. The only downside for the Jayhawks is that they lost all three of their starting linebackers, including leading tackler James Holt.

Despite having 18 starters back, expectations are likely being tempered by a schedule that is downright brutal in the second half of the season. KU could very well start 6-0, but then has to face OU, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Texas, and Missouri in 5 of the last 6 games, and that's not counting if they make it to the Big 12 title game. Maybe I've been drinking too much Husker Kool-Aid, but I see the Jayhawks finishing 9-3 with losses to Oklahoma, the Huskers, and Texas.

MISSOURI TIGERS
While Mizzou's ascension the past few years has been difficult for me (and all Husker fans) to deal with, the one upside is that now there is a palpable hatred between these teams, something that was absent before due to NU's one-sided dominance. Now that Mizzou has had their day in the sun (22 wins the over the past 2 years), the question is, can they maintain it? Losing Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman will test this team, even if it does have talented players to step in. Blaine Gabbert, the much-ballyhooed former Husker commit, will take the reins of the offense this year, and it will be interesting to see how he'll respond. He certainly has all the physical tools, but high school accolades don't always mean assured stardom in the college ranks.

Losing the top 2 receiving threats is painful, but capable players remain in the form of WRs Brandon Gerau (who stepped up in spring practice), Jared Perry, and Danario Alexander. Notice, I said capable. There's a big difference between capable and electric, which is what Maclin was. The good thing for the Tigers is that they return RB Derrick Washington, who established himself as one of the best all-around backs in the conference last year (17 TD's).

While the offense may still be serviceable, the defense is, shall we say, um....screwed. Only 3 teams in all of Division I (and yes, I still call it that, I'm not going to cave just because the I-AA had it's panties in a bunch) had worse pass defenses than Mizzou, and that doesn't bode well in the most pass-happy league in the country. To top it off, not only was the secondary horrible, it lost 3 starters...which, if you think about it, might not be a bad thing. I mean, it's not like there can be that much of a drop off, right?

The defensive line only returns one starter (NT Jaron Baston), but at least the linebacking corps is solid, anchored by Butkus candidate Sean Witherspoon, who has 1st-round talent. Unfortunately, one defensive stalwart can't save a defense that laid a season-long B.M. last year. Sadly, I can't really say much because they mopped the floor with Nebraska. In Lincoln.

That said, this year doesn't look promising. They are looking at a potential 3-4 start due to their season opener against Illinois and then playing NU, Okie State, and Texas in consecutive weeks, and it could be even worse than that considering they have to play OK teams Nevada and Bowling Green in their non-conference slate. Due to what should be a porous defense, I'm predicting a 6-6 record, not counting whatever garbage bowl game they make.

COLORADO BUFFALOES
"Ten wins and no excuses." That's the gauntlet that coach Dan Hawkins laid down at the awards banquet after last year's 5-7 season, which ended in spectacular fashion with Cody Hawkins on the turf courtesy of one Ndamukong Suh. Few things are better than keeping the Buffs out of a bowl game, especially since I watched them do it to us twice during the Callahan era. Anyways, with that warm memory out of the way, back to this year. Colorado fans are getting restless, as Hawkins' team has yet to finish above .500 in any of his three seasons at the helm. Those aren't the kind of results fans or pundits expected when Hawkins arrived from Boise State, and if he wants to stay off the hot seat he'll have to at least get back to a bowl this year.

One thing I will say for the Buffs is that they were decimated by injuries last year, as the final two-deep featured 27 sophomores and freshmen. Then again, this is FOOTBALL! IT'S THE BIG 12! And as such, those excuses ring hollow. If CU is going to turn it around, they have to get more consistent play from the QB position. Hawkins has some competition from Tyler Hansen for the starting QB job, though Hansen's spring practice injury set him back a few weeks.

In addition to the play of the quarterbacks, the Buffs also need former #1 overall recruit Darrell Scott to live up to the hype and have a big year running the ball, it's the only way they are going to take some pressure off of Hawkins/Hansen. Scott had a huge spring game, and also has Rodney Stewart to help him carry the rock, so the running game should be much-improved. In addition to a solid running back tandem, the Buffaloes also have a dangerous weapon in Josh Smith, who racked up nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards last year playing WR and returning kicks.

While the defense lost a couple of key players, they return a solid back seven, including standout linebackers in Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler, as well as (according to Colorado promoters, anyways) Thorpe award candidate Cha'pelle Brown at corner. Looking at the schedule though, I don't see the 10 wins that Hawkins promised. I think they will finish 6-6, though I have a gut feeling that even that may be a stretch. It all depends on the QB position developing, because without that, a promising running game won't have a chance and this team will be too predictable for opposing defenses.

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
20 years ago, Kansas State was awful, a running joke in college football. Then a guy named Bill Snyder was hired to coach the Wildcats. We all know the rest of the details about the Manhattan Miracle. The question is, can lightning strike twice? The game has changed a lot since then, and it'll be interesting to see if Snyder can even get K-State back to respectability, let alone to the level they were at in the mid-to-late 90's. The team is largely devoid of high-end talent, thanks in large part to Ron Prince's habit of assembling JUCO-only recruiting classes, and compounding the problem is that the offensive tackle who was playing QB last year is gone. Yeah, I just busted out a Josh Freeman-is-fat joke. I mean, c'mon, it's almost too easy.

Taking Freeman's place is Carson Coffman, who actually was a pretty good player in high school. The younger brother of former Missouri TE Chase, Coffman steps in behind a thin offensive line and has few weapons to distribute the ball to. The best he has is most likely WR Brandon Banks, a diminutive-but-speedy player who averaged over 15 yards a catch last year in addition to being the primary kick returner. Also look for TE Jeron Mastrud to have a decent year, considering Coffman will probably be looking to get rid of the ball in a hurry.

The defense has a few decent players, among them DE Brandon Harold (10.5 sacks as a true frosh last year) and CB Joshua Moore, who was among the leaders in pass breakups in the Big 12 last year. Unfortunately for Snyder, the schedule is devoid of the non-conference patsies he enjoyed pounding during his first go-round. Surely in the coming years we'll see St. Mary's School for the Blind and a few D-II teams, but this season they have UCLA to deal with. While my gut is telling me that the Wildcats are in for a 4-8 season, I'll predict they match last year's 5-7 season. What will be more telling than the record, however, is to see if this team starts to right the ship under Snyder after Prince's reign came to an ugly end.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES
For those of you outside of Ames wondering what that awful stench is, that would be your football team. ISU, who in the past three years has gone a combined 9-27 (topped off by a 2-10 mark last year), once again have a new coach after Gene Chizik got the hell out of Dodge and headed to greener pastures at Auburn. Enter former Auburn defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads, an Ankeny native and former ISU assistant coach. While that may sound sweet and nostalgic, that doesn't matter when your playing in the best football conference in the country (and yes, that's what the Big 12 was last year).

Just how far has Iowa State fallen? An unidentified Big 12 South player, being polled on the best and worst mascots in the conference at this year's media day, gave this answer for worst mascot: "The worst mascot is the Iowa State Tornadoes, or whatever they're called." Any time that an opposing player doesn't even know what you're called, that's a bad sign.

While he has an uphill battle, Rhoads is a very good coach who directed some great defensive units at Pitt before going to Auburn for last season. He's going to need it too, considering the Cyclones gave up 42 points per game in conference play last season. The secondary has a lot of experience, though I'm not really sure if that matters or not. Returning starters, in my opinion, can be a misleading factor, because sometimes those starters weren't that good to begin with. Safety James Smith is a decent presence at safety, and Jesse Smith (no relation) has been a consistent presence at linebacker, though he's no game-changer.

The offense, led by the capable Austen Arnaud, will be switching to the spread this year, and he'll be joined in the backfield by Florida transfer Bo Williams at running back. 8 other starters return on offense with Arnaud, and Rhoads brought in highly-regarded offensive coordinator Tom Herman from Rice. The thing is, as much as I've ripped on ISU here, they played well at times last year. They were up 20 on Kansas at halftime last year before collapsing, and they lost to UNLV in overtime. In addition to those games, they played a few other teams really tough. But playing teams tough doesn't keep coaches employed, winning does. A soft schedule could get them off to a 3-1 start in non-conference play, but after that they have their work cut out for them. I'm going to predict that they'll steal at least one game they shouldn't and finish with a 5-7 record.